Oakland Tribune,  Dec 16, 2005  by Eve Mitchell, BUSINESS WRITER

The housing boom may not yet be over, but the end appears near as Bay Area home prices continue to soar while the number of homes sold continues to drop.

Realtors say now is a good time for buyers to strike a deal. But if you are looking in the East Bay, the lowest prices might not be where you expect.

For the second straight month, the median price in Contra Costa County topped the median in Alameda County.

The median price of a Bay Area home reached a record $625,000 in November, up 17 percent from

$533,000 a year ago. Year-to-year sales declined for the eighth month in a row, La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems said Thursday.

"Housing is taking a little bit longer to sell, and buyers are being more discriminating," said Avram Goldman, president of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, San Francisco Bay Area. "It's kind of the same story. Appreciation is way up, and the number of sales is down."

In what may be the start of a trend, Contra Costa's median price reached $589,000 -- $2,000 more than Alameda County's median. Contra Costa's median was up 24 percent from a year ago, while the number of homes sold declined by 10 percent.

Alameda County's median price was

$587,000 in November, a 17 percent gain from a year ago. The number of

homes sold declined by 11 percent.

"Maybe (higher) interest rates are having a little bit of an effect ... on entry-level buyers" in Contra Costa County, Goldman said. "Maybe what we're seeing is fewer sales at the bottom end, so the (median) price is pushing up."

In the Bay Area, 9,717 homes changed hands last month, down more than 7 percent from October and down 11 percent from November 2004.

In a cooling real estate market, it is typical for housing values to continue to climb even though home sales are slowing, said Kei Matsuda, senior economist for San Francisco-based Union Bank of California. But eventually, housing prices will cool, he said, which is what industry analysts are forecasting for next year.

"We are not at the end of the boom but have already passed the peak of the housing boom," Matsuda said. "There is a slight gap between what sellers expect and what buyers will pay. The deals are harder to strike."

Buyers should try to strike a deal this holiday season when the market is slow and interest rates are still low, said Linette Edwards, an associate broker with Emeryville-based online brokerage ZipRealty.

"Now is the time to come in without competition and crowds. Sellers are in an uneasy state. Properties are not selling as quickly," said Edwards, whose territory covers the Oakland and Berkeley hills, along with Lafayette, Moraga and Orinda. "We are right now in a very, very gray area, a holding time. Buyers are holding off to March. ... They want to see if the market is really going to dip."

Steve Dhillon, a Realtor with ERA, The Property Professionals in Fremont, said low inventory during the holiday contributes to slow sales. For example, Union City has 67 single-family homes on the market, while a few months ago there were 85.

And while some homes have been taken off the market, it is not because houses are not getting the asking price, he said. It has more to do with the house not being marketed properly or in the right condition to sell.

"The ones that are selling for good prices are the ones that are in pristine condition," he said.

Some sellers also take their homes off their market simply because of the holidays, he said.

DataQuick also reported that the typical monthly mortgage payment for a Bay Area homeowner was $2,921 in November. That is up from $2,815 in October and $2,350 from November 2004.

Adjusted for inflation, the current typical payment is more than 16 percent higher than spring 1990, considered the last peak of the real estate cycle.